Janus Henderson Investors: Boris Johnson zum Premierminister in UK gewählt

Schlagworte: , , ,
Ein Kommentar zur Wahl von Paul O’Connor, Head des Multi-Asset-Teams.

‘The market response has been
fairly muted so far, which is not surprising given how widely anticipated this
outcome was. The pervasive uncertainty surrounding Brexit has already taken its
toll on UK assets and is now somewhat priced in. UK equities have seen sizeable
outflows from global investors since the referendum vote in 2016 and
speculative positioning in sterling is very negative. If we look to betting
markets as a guide to consensus expectations, we see a no-deal Brexit is a one-in-three
chance, with investor dread of this being somewhat offset by the view that
there is still a one-in-four chance that Brexit is cancelled (Article 50 is
revoked). The perceived likelihood of a 2019 general election has been growing
in recent months, highlighting another layer of uncertainty surrounding the UK
outlook and yet another reason for global investors to stay away.

Growth remains a key concern, with 2019 looking set to be
the fourth consecutive year of sub-2% UK GDP growth. Confidence is
deteriorating across the construction, manufacturing and services sector and
among consumers as well. With the economy looking like it is one stumble away
from recession, a policy response is needed. A 2019 interest rate cut seems
increasingly likely and a Johnson fiscal stimulus a near certainty. While both
of these can help cushion the impact of Brexit-related uncertainty on the
economy, a full restoration of confidence seems unlikely until the big issue
gets resolved.’