Janus Henderson Investors: Chinese nominal GDP confusion: slowdown confirmed

Schlagworte: , , , ,
The Chinese GDP numbers released on Friday appeared to show a strong pick-up in nominal growth in Q4. This was puzzling but possibly attributable to the recent food-driven inflation surge. Some analysts latched onto the pick-up as a bullish signal.

The numbers carried by Datastream changed over the weekend and now
show a slowdown rather than acceleration in Q4. The explanation is that
there have been upward revisions to the level of nominal GDP in previous
quarters, which weren’t available on Friday – we were comparing the new
Q4 number with old-basis data for earlier quarters.

The expectation here has been that two-quarter nominal GDP expansion
would fall in H1 2020 in lagged reflection of declines in six-month
growth rates of money and credit since Q2 2019. The new numbers suggest
that that this slowdown has already started – see chart (revised from
Friday’s post).

Nominal GDP and Money
Nominal GDP and Money
Nominal GDP and Money