Janus Henderson Investors: Immobilienaktien – Ruhe bewahren und langfristig investieren

Schlagworte: , , ,
Ein Kommentar von Guy Barnard, Tim Gibson und Greg Kuhl vom Global Property Equities Team bei Janus Henderson Investors.

Die drei Finanzexperten geben darin
einen aktuellen Überblick über die Immobilienmärkte und die
Auswirkungen des Coronavirus auf die Investitionsentscheidungen des
Teams.

Kernaussagen

  • Der
    weltweite Ausverkauf von Vermögenswerten hat zwar auch vor
    Immobilienaktien keinen Halt gemacht, die einzelnen Subsektoren des
    Immobilienmarkts sind jedoch unterschiedlich stark betroffen

  • Die
    Bewertungen börsennotierter Immobiliengesellschaften liegen nahe den
    Tiefstständen während der globalen Finanzkrise. Doch obwohl diesmal
    Auswirkungen auf die künftige Nachfrage zu erwarten sind, scheinen die
    Cashflows und die meisten Bilanzen widerstandsfähiger zu sein, als der
    Markt derzeit anerkennt

  • Anlagen
    in Immobilienaktien können zwar kurzfristig volatiler sein, eröffnen
    langfristig aber auch die Möglichkeit, unterhalb ihres immanenten Werts
    in Immobilien zu investieren

Der vollständige Kommentar in englischer Sprache

We have seen a broad-based sell-off in global assets in recent weeks
as investors (including ourselves) come to terms with the growing
impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus, and an effective shutdown of many
economies. The latest phase of the sell-off and extreme volatility seems
to be driven by a general unwinding of risk and a scramble for
liquidity across all asset types. Correlations among asset classes,
countries, sectors and individual securities have increased and there
have been few places to hide.

Evidence that ‘a rising tide does not lift all boats’

This same trend is being felt across listed real estate markets where
property shares in most geographies and property types have been
impacted. That said, we are seeing a distinction between different
sectors, which are being impacted to differing degrees, and at different
rates. Retail-focused companies, as well as those with hotel exposure
and weaker financial positions are seeing the sharpest falls. Here, we
do expect downward earnings revisions and dividend cuts, and indeed this
is already occurring for some retail and hotel landlords. Already
stretched balance sheets, particularly among retail companies, may also
lead to the need for additional funding if these challenging conditions
persist. Having previously identified retail and hotels as sectors as
weak links based on their supply and demand characteristics, we have
minimal exposure here and the effects of virus containment efforts have
only served to accelerate an ongoing negative structural trend.

Focus on fundamentals

While the de-rating in shares has been painful to watch, we continue
to believe that the companies we hold have far more defensive income
streams,  robust balance sheets, lower leverage and more diverse sources
of funding than current share prices give credit for. Hence we do not
yet see this as a credit crisis issue as it was in 2008-9. In our view
the value of these robust income streams will come to the fore when
market volatility subsides.

Those parts of the real estate market that are most stressed are
areas we felt were already under structural pressure and have been
avoiding. Conversely, areas we have favoured such as logistics,
manufactured housing, cell towers and affordable rental housing have
proved more resilient. As a result, we have not made many meaningful
changes to our overall positioning, helped by the greater emphasis we
had already placed on balance sheet quality and our investment processes
embedded top-down macro risk controls.

Our portfolios remain overweight to the logistics market where the
current backdrop is supporting the acceleration of the structural shift
toward online shopping and reinforcing demand from their tenant base, an
example being Amazon’s recent comments around further expansion with
the addition of 100,000 extra warehouse and delivery staff in the US
alone. How many people using online grocery shopping for the first time
will continue to do so even when the coronavirus lockdowns are lifted?

Portfolio holdings in gaming real estate investment trusts (REITs) in
the US have been impacted, along with certain stocks with exposure to
property development globally. However, we have maintained our
positioning given the team’s longer-term investment focus.

Are current valuations justified

Clearly, the situation is incredibly fluid, and our conviction has to
be lower, but we do continue to believe that those parts of the market
offering more resilient cash flows can benefit from the resulting ‘zero
rate world’ we may likely be in again. Indiscriminate selling creates
opportunities and the moves of the last few weeks have been in extreme
in a historical context. Listed property valuations are close to the low
levels seen during the Global Financial Crisis (see charts below) and
while this time is different and will likely impact future demand, there
looks to be greater resilience in many property companies’ financial
health than the market is currently giving credit for. Therefore we
think it is reasonable to expect some re-rating from current levels in
the medium term.

Last week, global real estate stocks underperformed wider equity
markets, as fixed income, notably credit markets, became more
disorderly. Central bank actions to give greater confidence here need to
be watched closely.

GPE-virus-2
GPE-virus-2
GPE-virus-2

Source: Worldscope, I/B/E/S, Refinitiv Datastream. Charts
reproduced with permission. NAV= net asset value, SD= standard
deviation. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Estimated data may differ from final figures.

In the short term, markets will remain volatile and investing in this
backdrop can be inherently uncomfortable. Before the market begins
showing sign of normalisation there are several criteria that we think
are needed:

  • Peaking or signs that the coronavirus is being contained (especially in Europe and the US)
  • A return to the smooth operating of capital markets (fixed income in particular)
  • Adequate policy response (both monetary and fiscal)

Our portfolios continue to invest purely in liquid real estate
securities. While investing in listed real estate may lead to greater
volatility in the short term, it also may create opportunities to access
real estate for less than its intrinsic value, which we believe to be
the case today.

At
present we see many compelling opportunities in the listed property
sector at valuations not seen for more than a decade. With many property
companies providing resilient cash flows, the good news is that we are
‘still being paid’ by regular income as we wait for a re-rating.


Disclaimer

Die
vorstehenden Einschätzungen sind die des Autors zum Zeitpunkt der
Veröffentlichung und können von denen anderer Personen/Teams bei Janus
Henderson Investors abweichen. Die Bezugnahme auf einzelne Wertpapiere,
Fonds, Sektoren oder Indizes in diesem Artikel stellt weder ein Angebot
oder eine Aufforderung zu deren Erwerb oder Verkauf dar, noch ist sie
Teil eines solchen Angebots oder einer solchen Aufforderung.

Die
Wertentwicklung in der Vergangenheit ist kein zuverlässiger Indikator
für die künftige Wertentwicklung. Alle Performance-Angaben beinhalten
Erträge und Kapitalgewinne bzw. -verluste, aber keine wiederkehrenden
Gebühren oder sonstigen Ausgaben des Fonds.

Der Wert einer
Anlage und die Einkünfte aus ihr können steigen oder fallen. Es kann
daher sein, dass Sie nicht die gesamte investierte Summe zurückerhalten.

Die Informationen in diesem Artikel stellen keine Anlageberatung dar.